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Global economic outlook shaky as world shifts from government to private demand


More than 60 countries around the world are expected to record lower output in real terms in 2010 than in 2008 and even Australia, which is expected to experience a relatively robust rebound in domestic demand, will face challenges as 37,500 firms face potential financial stress in the New Year.
 
A new report – Risk 2010 – released by Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) states that the complex recovery that has begun to take hold will persist in 2010 as the world economy continues to depend on various emergency supports. Consequently, the recovery will surprise with its strength in some areas while in others new pockets of weakness will appear.
 
D&B’s forecasts indicate that almost half of the 132 economies examined will record lower output in real terms in 2010 than in 2008 and even this is dependent on a relatively positive scenario where the US and emerging markets recover solidly.
 
Australia is one of the countries forecast to record lower growth, with a real GDP growth forecast of 1.8 percent as compared to the 2.5 percent growth recorded two years earlier. In addition, recessions are forecast in 13 economies in 2010 and a further four economies are not expected to grow (zero real GDP growth is forecast).
 
Real GDP Growth (actual and forecasts)
 
On the local front, improved consumer and business confidence point to the likelihood of a relatively robust rebound in domestic demand over the next 12-18 months. Accordingly, D&B is forecasting real GDP growth for Australia of 1.8 percent in 2010 and 2.6 in 2011.
 
Like many other countries around the world, unemployment is expected to rise in 2010 (to 6.1 percent) before dropping back slightly in 2011 (to 6.0 percent).
 
Meanwhile, inflation is forecast to remain within or below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target zone of 2-3 percent. Australia is expected to record annual average inflation of 1.7 percent in 2010 before rising to 2.3 percent in 2011.
 
According to Christine Christian, D&B’s CEO, 2010 looks significantly more positive than 2009 however, risk will remain prevalent as the recovery continues to unfold.
 
“Australia has f...
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