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Global upturn bumpy as governments withdraw stimulus


Real GDP Growth Forecasts 2010 and 2011
 
The risk of sluggish and weak growth this year is becoming increasingly apparent despite the healthy pace of expansion that is occurring in the global economy entering 2010.
 
Dun & Bradstreet’s 2010 Economic & Risk Outlook Report, released today, reveals that major emerging markets such as China and India continue to experience rapid economic expansion and both the US and Europe have pulled out of recession.
 
However, the winding down of stimulus programs around the globe, high unemployment and a continuation of subdued bank lending are likely to result in a slowdown during the course of 2010. Consequently, more than 60 countries around the world are expected to record lower output in real terms in 2010 than they did prior to the crisis. Those countries most closely integrated with the US economy in particular, are expected to continue to suffer from the effects of muted US demand.
 
Despite predicting a global slowdown, the D&B report forecasts positive economic growth at a global level and a promising outlook for Australia. World economic growth is expected to hit 2.0 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2011. This comes on the back of estimates which indicate that the global economy contracted by 2.2 percent in 2009. Meanwhile, Australia is expected to track Chinese demand which is forecast to continue at a relatively rapid pace this year. In addition, Australia’s key trading partners are expected to record positive economic growth this year however, Japan is expected to face a contraction in 2011.
 
According to Damian Karmelich, Director of Corporate Affairs, 2010 looks relatively promising for many economies around the world however, markets are increasingly appreciating the risk that a renewed economic slowdown could occur this year.
 
“2010 looks significantly more positive than 2009 however, as we predicted during 2009, this year will challenging,” said Mr Karmelich.
 
“Government stimulus packages underpinned much of the growth recorded last year and with these packages scheduled to be unwound in 2010, the stimulus will need to be supplanted by private demand if economies are to continue on their cu...
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