January air freight demand increase not enough to wipe out red ink
The International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) January 2010 demand statistics for international scheduled air traffic have shown continuing improvement, but the industry is still set for net loss in 2010.
Compared to the previous year, January passenger demand was up 6.4%. Against this improving demand, a 1.2% increase in passenger capacity in January pushed load factors to 75.9% (up from the 72.2% recorded for January 2009).
International cargo demand showed a 28.3% improvement with only a 3.7% increase in capacity. This pushed the cargo load factor to 49.6%, a step-change from the 40.1% recorded in January 2009.
The large increases in year-on-year comparisons reflect a steady improvement from the precipitous fall in demand that characterised the early part of 2009 rather than a dramatic improvement in January. Compared to December 2009, and adjusting for seasonal variations, passenger demand grew by 0.5% while air freight volumes increased by 3.0%.
“Airlines have lost 2-3 years of growth. Demand is moving in the right direction. The 3.0% increase in freight volumes from December to January is particularly encouraging. We can start to see the future with some cautious optimism, but better volumes do not necessarily mean better profits. Passenger yields are still 15% below peak. And we expect 2010 losses to be US$5.6 billion,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s director general and CEO.
There are large geographical differences in the improvements. The strongest upturns have been seen in markets where economic recovery from the recession has been strongest—Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.
International passenger demand
Compared to the low point in the cycle (February 2009) international passenger traffic is up 8.6%. The market has not yet recovered from the losses of 2008 and early 2009. Demand must improve by a further 2% to return to the peak levels of early 2008.
Asia Pacific carriers experienced a 6.5% increase in demand compared to the previous year. Of the improvement in demand seen since the early 2009 low point, 31% has been realised by carriers in the region that is leading the global economic recovery.
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