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High business expectations for last quarter


Australian executives are looking to finish the financial year strongly, however, strong expectations for employment growth and increased selling prices and concerns about wage increases point to capacity constraints in the economy.
 
These are the findings from the latest Dun & Bradstreet Business Expectations Survey that examines business expectations for the June 2010 quarter.
 
The profits index is now at its highest level in five years and is 74 points higher than the trough in of the June quarter 2009. Almost one third of respondents (29 per cent) expect their profits levels to increase in the June quarter. This comes on top of a number of improving profit forecasts in the first quarter from major retail firms such as Myer and David Jones. The retail sector, however, lost its top spot as the sector with the highest profit expectations, with executives from the wholesale sector reaching an index of 23 for the quarter (32 per cent expect an increase and 9 per cent a decrease.)
 
The expected sales index rose five points to 33, exceeding the strong positive level of the two previous quarters. The sales index is now at the highest level in six years and is up 81 points on the trough of the June quarter 2009. Forty five per cent of firms expect an increase in sales and 12 per cent a decrease in sales in the June quarter 2010. Wholesale executives have the highest sales expectations, with 50 per cent expecting an increase and 9 per cent a decrease.
 
The wholesale sector enjoyed strong increases in both sales and profit expectations in the last quarter (thirteen and fourteen percentage points respectively). This reflects a continuation of the actual growth in sales and profits for the wholesale sector that occurred from September 2009 to December 2009 quarter - an increase of 20 points for sales and 27 for profits.
 
In response to these strong sales expectations, inventory levels expectations are also increasing. Inventory level expectations for the June quarter 2010 are at the highest point in more than five years. Eighteen per cent of executives expect to increase inventories, while nine per cent plan to reduce stock levels. The expectations of non-durables manufacturers have reached the highest level in more than seven years, with a net 15 per cent of firms expecting to increase stock levels in the June quarter.
 
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