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Business confidence withers


Australian executives are indicating that the New Financial Year won’t be as buoyant as previously anticipated, with expectations for six key indicators of business strength declining since the previous quarter.
 
The latest Dun & Bradstreet Business Expectations Survey reveals that the sales, profits, employment, capital investment, inventories and selling prices indices have all fallen since the previous quarter. The fall in the selling prices index indicates that monetary tightening and the end of the government's stimulus package are having the desired effect on inflation. However, the considerable fall in executive expectations for sales suggests that these factors are also impacting the willingness of firms and households to spend, which could result in lower growth than expected in the year ahead.
 
The sales index has taken a significant fall, dropping 15 points to 18. Thirty eight per cent of firms expect an increase in sales in the September quarter 2010, while 20 per cent anticipate a decrease. Despite the significant fall in the sales index, wholesale executives continue to have solid expectations – 45 per cent of wholesalers expect to increase sales, while 15 per cent anticipate a decrease. However, the substantial decline in the overall sales index is flowing through to impact a range of other indicators including employment, inventories, capital investment and profits.
 
Employment expectations are down four points on the June quarter 2010 – 15 per cent of firms are planning to increase staff levels and 10 per cent expect to reduce employee numbers.
 
Despite the fall, all sectors have maintained positive expectations for growth in employment numbers for the third time since the June quarter 2009. The strong sales expectations of wholesalers are flowing through to employment intentions, with this group recording the highest index (11) of any sector. Seventeen per cent of wholesalers expect to take on new staff in the September quarter, while six per cent expect to reduce employee numbers.
 
Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals that Australia has experienced nine consecutive months of growth in full time employment. The latest expectations of Australian executives indicate this growth will continue in the quarter ahead, however if the employment index continues to fall recent gains could cease or be revers...
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