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Sales up, profits up, employment and investment to go down


Australia’s executives are expecting a sharp turnaround in sales and profits during the December quarter but their employment and capital investment expectations remain subdued.
 
The latest Dun & Bradstreet Business Expectations Survey reveals that sales and profits expectations – two key indicators of business strength – have risen substantially since the previous quarter, demonstrating that business confidence is improving as year-end approaches. Inventories are also expected to increase as firms foresee a need to replenish stocks to keep up with demand, however, firms are less optimistic about the need to take on new staff.
 
The sales index has made a substantial rise, climbing seven points to 25. Forty one per cent of firms expect an increase in sales in the December quarter 2010, while 16 per cent anticipate a decrease. The most significant increase in expectations has come from the durables manufacturing sector where the sales index rose 17 points to 29. The retailers’ sales index also rose, climbing ten points to an index of 19, however, despite the lead-up to Christmas traditionally being a boom time for retailers, this group has the lowest expectations for sales during the December quarter.
 
The substantial rise in the overall sales index is flowing through to impact profits expectations. This index rose from 12 for the September quarter to 17, taking the index back to its highest level in five years. Almost three in ten firms (28 per cent) expect an increase in profits in the December quarter, while 11 per cent anticipate a decrease. Durables manufacturers had the most significant increase in expectations, rising nine points to an index of 16. Non-durable manufacturers and retailers have the lowest expectations for an increase in profits, with the index for both groups at 14.
 
Firms’ increased sales expectations are also flowing through to inventories, with this index rising since the previous quarter – the index is currently at the second highest level in six years.
 
Nineteen per cent of executives expect to increase inventories, while 11 per cent plan to reduce stock levels. A rising contribution of stocks is an important indicator of confidence and the latest rise in this index comes on the back of solid June quarter results where Australian firms recorded their third positive quarter of inventories growth.
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