China will need 6,810 aircraft @ $1 trillion: Boeing

China will need 6,810 aircraft @ $1 trillion: Boeing

Boeing released its annual China Current Market Outlook (CMO) in Beijing, estimating the total value of those new aircraft at $1.025 trillion. China becomes the first trillion-dollar aviation market in Boeing’s forecast.

“As China transitions to a more consumer-based economy, aviation will play a key role in its economic development,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Aircraft. “Because travel and transport are key services, we expect to see passenger traffic grow 6.4 percent annually in China over the next 20 years.”

Boeing predicts China will need 5,110 new single-aisle aircraft through 2035, accounting for 75 per cent of the total new deliveries. Low-cost carriers and full-service airlines have been adding aircraft and expanding new point-to-point services to cater for both leisure and business travel demand from a rising middle class in China and throughout Asia.

Mr Tinseth said the backlog from Chinese customers demonstrates that the new 737 MAX 8 and the current Next-Generation 737-800 are at the heart of the single-aisle market.

Boeing forecasts the wide-body fleet will triple in size, requiring 1,560 new aircraft such as the 787, 777 and 777X.  This year’s forecast reflects a continued shift from very large aircraft to efficient new small and medium wide-body aircraft.

China’s single-aisle fleet currently accounts for about 18 per cent of global single-aisle aircraft; however, China’s wide-body fleet only represents approximately 5 per cent of the global wide-body segment.

“The continuing expansion of China’s middle class, coupled with new visa policies and a wide range of wide-body aircraft with new technologies, capabilities and efficiencies, gives us every reason to expect a very bright future for China’s long-haul market,” said Mr Tinseth.

Driven by China’s growing e-commerce business – already the largest in the world – air cargo is expected to become a key driver for the continuous growth of aviation in China, with the need for 180 new freighters and 410 converted freighters.

New aircraft China deliveries through 2035
Aircraft type Seats Total deliveries Dollar value
Regional jets 90 and below 140 $10B
Single-aisle 90-230 5,110 $535B
Small wide-body 200-300 870 $240B
Medium wide-body 300-400 630 $220B
Large wide-body 400 and above 60 $20B
Total ———– 6,810
(17% of world total)
$1.025T
(17% of world total)

Worldwide, Boeing projects investments of $5.9 trillion for 39,620 new commercial aircraft to be delivered during the next 20 years. The complete forecast is available at www.boeing.com/cmo.

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