Demand for new fuel-efficient airliners and fleet renewal will create a $3.2 trillion market over the next two decades, Boeing has projected.
Releasing the Current Market Outlook report, the aircraft builder said that the aviation sector will call for 29,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft by 2027, while also acknowledging the industry’s near-term challenges such as a slowing global economy, spiralling fuel prices and shrinking airlines to balance costs and revenues.
“We’re facing a very dynamic situation today in the commercial aviation industry,” said vice president of Boeing Commercial Airplanes Marketing, Randy Tinseth.
“This year’s forecast is roosted in today’s realities, but also recognises the nature of a long-term outlook.”
According to the report, replacement aircraft represented a greater share of demand of 43 per cent than a previous projection of 36 per cent, boosted by the loss of economic viability of older aircraft amidst soaring fuel costs.
The company also forecasts a fleet size of 35,800 at the end of the 20-year period, which represents an annual increase of 3.2 per cent compared with today’s world fleet of 19,000 units.
New aircraft are expected to accommodate a forecasted 5.8 per cent annual increase in air cargo traffic and a five per cent annual increase in international air travel.
Also projected is strong growth in the delivery of single-aisle jet planes, driven by rapid expansion of Asia-Pacific aviation markets along with continued growth of low-cost carriers worldwide.
“We’re seeing an increasing share of aircraft deliveries to the Asia-Pacific region, as well as the Middle East, Latin America and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS),” Tinseth said.
“The result is a much more geographically balanced and more stable long-term market, which is less vulnerable to swings in regional economies or other variations in demand.”