Retail growth to level out: study

Retail growth to level out: study

The October 2017 edition of the quarterly AFGC CHEP Retail Index has signalled continued retail turnover growth in Australia, but with a levelling out over the coming months of 2017, following the pickup in spending growth experienced in the first half of the year.

Key figures from the index predict:

  • 3% year-on-year retail turnover growth to the month of September 2017, trending relatively flat to 3.4% year-on-year for the month of November. This is down from the slightly higher 3.8% growth recorded year-on-year for June and August 2017.
  • On a quarterly basis, 3.0% year-on-year growth to the September quarter trending to 3.3% year-on-year for the December quarter.

The AFGC CHEP Retail Index is based on transactional data from CHEP pallet movements and analysis by Deloitte. It is viewed as a reliable lead indicator of Australian Bureau of Statistics retail trade data.

Australian Food and Grocery Council chief executive officer Tanya Barden said: “The latest index, along with commentary from Deloitte, shows that although we continue to see retail growth, the brakes will be reapplied slightly leading into Christmas. This follows the modest but welcome pick-up in the first half of the year. Financial risks are being felt more acutely by many consumers, which is affecting their sentiment and spending. Retail price growth has been very slow at around one per cent over the year.”

The AFGC CHEP Retail Index is a collaborative project between the Australian Food and Grocery Council and CHEP Australia, produced by Deloitte.

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